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Health Dynamics, Life Expectancy Heterogeneity, and the Racial Gap in Social Security Wealth

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  • Foltyn, Richard
  • Olsson, Jonna

Abstract

Using biennial data from the Health and Retirement Study, we estimate age-dependent health dynamics and survival probabilities at annual frequency conditional on race, sex, self-reported health and other covariates. The estimates can be used to calculate heterogeneous life expectancies in the population. We show that the racial life expectancy gap remains large, even conditional on health, socioeconomic and marital status. Due to racial differences in health dynamics and mortality, married black men on average can expect to receive $6,400 (or 8%) less in Social Security benefits in present value terms. Using a rich life cycle model, we estimate that this corresponds to a welfare loss of about 4%, whereas black married women’s welfare loss is primarily driven not by their own shorter life expectancy but the shorter life expectancy of their husbands.

Suggested Citation

  • Foltyn, Richard & Olsson, Jonna, 2024. "Health Dynamics, Life Expectancy Heterogeneity, and the Racial Gap in Social Security Wealth," CEPR Discussion Papers 19654, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19654
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    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP19654
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kindermann, Fabian & Kunz, Sebastian, 2025. "Unequal Lifespans and Redistribution," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325366, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Virginia Sánchez-Marcos & Javier Fernández-Blanco, 2026. "Unequal Lives, Unequal Benefits: Life Expectancy and Social Security Rules," Working Papers 1556, Barcelona School of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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