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A Hundred Years of Business Cycles and the Phillips Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Bini, Lapo
  • Reichlin, Lucrezia
  • Ricco, Giovanni

Abstract

This study investigates the business cycle dynamics of the U.S. economy since 1900 through a multivariate framework that imposes minimal economic restrictions. A key finding is the presence of a significant negative correlation between inflation and economic slack, at business cycle frequencies. This relationship remains robust across over a century of data, with stable coefficients in subsample periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Bini, Lapo & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2024. "A Hundred Years of Business Cycles and the Phillips Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 19552, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19552
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    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP19552
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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