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Carbon Policy Surprises and Stock Returns: Signals from Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Panizza, Ugo
  • Hengge, Martina
  • Varghese, Richard

Abstract

Understanding the impact of climate mitigation policies is key to designing effective carbon pricing tools. We use institutional features of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and high-frequency data on more than 2,000 publicly listed European firms over 2011-21 to study the impact of carbon policies on stock returns. After extracting the surprise component of regulatory actions, we show that events resulting in higher carbon prices lead to negative abnormal returns which increase with a firm’s carbon intensity. This negative relationship is even stronger for firms in sectors which do not participate in the EU ETS suggesting that investors price in transition risk stemming from the shift towards a low-carbon economy. We conclude that policies which increase carbon prices are effective in raising the cost of capital for emission-intensive firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Panizza, Ugo & Hengge, Martina & Varghese, Richard, 2023. "Carbon Policy Surprises and Stock Returns: Signals from Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 17868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17868
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    Cited by:

    1. Le, Anh H., 2023. "Climate change and carbon policy: A story of optimal green macroprudential and capital flow management," IMFS Working Paper Series 191, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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