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Japon : de la décennie perdue à un improbable New Deal

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  • Boyer, Robert

Abstract

Le contraste entre le succès des années quatre-vingt et la stagnation et l'incertitude des années quatre-vingt-dix au Japon a suscité nombre d'interprétations. L'article procède à une revue de littérature selon le caractère réel ou au contraire monétaire et financier des facteurs de crise d'une part, la prépondérance des aspects de court (erreurs de politique économique) ou épuisement de l'innovation et des sources de croissance de l'autre. L'hypothèse centrale est qu'il faut combiner ces divers facteurs, ce qui livre une caractérisation du caractère structurel et systémique de la crise japonaise: non-redressement de la rentabilité, absence de réduction des mauvaises dettes, multiplicité des recompositions institutionnelles. On oppose ainsi la trappe à liquidité keynésienne à la vision d'Irwin Fisher d'une crise déflationniste liée à la correction de l'excès d'endettement. Le point central de tout programme est, en effet, une récapitalisation et restructuration complète du système bancaire et financier, mais il importe de les compléter par une réforme de la dépense publique, de la couverture sociale, entre autre pour favoriser l'émergence d'un modèle anthropogénétique.

Suggested Citation

  • Boyer, Robert, 2004. "Japon : de la décennie perdue à un improbable New Deal," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0404, CEPREMAP.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpm:cepmap:0404
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    File URL: http://www.cepremap.fr/depot/couv_orange/co0404.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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