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Le confinement optimal : quelques calculs exploratoires

Author

Listed:
  • Pestieau, Pierre

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium)

  • Ponthière, Grégory

Abstract

Est-il possible d’expliquer, de « rationaliser », la stratégie de confinement strict menée face à la pandémie Covid-19 durant le printemps et l’automne 2020 ? Cet article propose de revenir sur la question des fondations normatives des politiques de confinement en présence d’une pandémie. Pour ce faire, nous analysons différents critères de choix social qui peuvent être utilisés pour évaluer le degré de confinement qui s’impose lors d’une pandémie, et comparons les solutions de ces problèmes de planification sociale. Nous montrons que chacun de ces critères de choix social aborde différemment les arbitrages entre sauver des vies humaines et éviter l’expansion de la pauvreté. Tandis que le critère utilitariste et le vote majoritaire (en présence d’altruisme envers les seniors) poussent à l’adoption d’un confinement sévère, l’égalitarisme ex post (donnant une priorité absolue aux personnes les moins bien loties) et le vote majoritaire en l’absence d’altruisme mènent au confinement minimal. La politique de confinement optimale est donc peu robuste au critère de bien-être social qui est postulé.

Suggested Citation

  • Pestieau, Pierre & Ponthière, Grégory, 2021. "Le confinement optimal : quelques calculs exploratoires," LIDAM Reprints CORE 3160, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:3160
    Note: In: Revue française d’économie, 2021, 35, 4, p. 3-21
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