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Impacto en el precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia debido a la incorporación de fuentes no convencionales de energía renovable

Author

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  • Carlos David Hidalgo Bastidas

Abstract

Este estudio evalúa el impacto en los precios de bolsa del mercado de energía eléctrica en Colombia producido por la incorporación de los proyectos de generación de energía renovable adjudicados en la subasta de largo plazo, efectuada por el Gobierno nacional en octubre de 2019. La evaluación se realiza de manera retrospectiva para el periodo 2007-2019, utilizando la metodología de reconstrucción de curva de oferta. Adicionalmente, se propone una metodología que permite hacer una evaluación prospectiva para el periodo 2020-2030, la cual combina un análisis inferencial para proyectar el precio de bolsa y el uso de redes neuronales para predecir el impacto futuro. Los resultados evidencian una disminución en el precio de bolsa de aproximadamente 5 % para el periodo 2007-2019 y 3,1 % para el periodo 2020-2030. Escenarios de mayor penetración de renovables muestran que una mayor incorporación de estos recursos produce un mayor impacto en el precio de bolsa. ***** This work explores the impact produced by the Non-conventional energy sources projects awarded in the long-term auction carried out by the National Government on the spot electricity prices in Colombia. To reach that goal, we use two different methodologies. The first methodology, the Spot Market Supply Curve Reconstruction, is used to perform a retrospective analysis for the 2007-2019 period. The methodology allows us to reconstruct the hourly spot prices based on the Merit Order Dispatch. We use the second methodology to perform a prospective analysis for the 2020-2030 period. For that, we propose a novel model that combines an inferential analysis to forecast the spot electricity price, and a neural network to predict the impact of the renewable resources. The results indicate a decrease of approximately 5% in spot electricity prices for the 2007-2019 period, and a decrease of 3.1% for the 2020-2030 prospective period of study. Additional scenarios with higher penetration of renewable resources produce a greater impact on the spot electricity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos David Hidalgo Bastidas, 2020. "Impacto en el precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia debido a la incorporación de fuentes no convencionales de energía renovable," Documentos de trabajo 20148, Escuela de Gobierno - Universidad de los Andes.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000547:020148
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