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La política fiscal en Colombia: ¿Procíclica o anticíclica?

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  • William R. Baca Mejía

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Abstract

En este trabajo se trata de identificar en qué momento la política fiscal en Colombia fue anticíclicao procíclica. Los períodos de estudio son 1950-2004 y 1962-2004. Para el primer período seconsidera el Déficit del Sector Público No Financiero (SPNF) y para el segundo periodo, el Déficitdel Gobierno Nacional Central (GNC). Cuando la economía presenta desaceleraciones o recesiones,se logra identificar que los periodos anticíclicos estuvieron acompañados con bajas tasas dedesempleo, y los periodos procíclicos por altas tasas de desempleo. Las estimaciones econométricas,mediante modelos tipo VAR, muestran que el déficit fiscal, tanto del SPNF como del GNC,generan efectos reales positivos en el corto plazo sin desestabilización de precios. Se concluyeque la política fiscal debe tener discrecionalidad para reactivar la economía cuando se desacelerey el sector externo no tenga restricciones como la devaluación de la moneda local originada pordesbalances externos negativos. Igualmente, la soberanía monetaria representa la clave para unprograma macroeconómico que garantice el pleno empleo y la estabilidad de precios.

Suggested Citation

  • William R. Baca Mejía, 2007. "La política fiscal en Colombia: ¿Procíclica o anticíclica?," DOCUMENTOS IEEC 007287, UNIVERSIDAD DEL NORTE.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000383:007287
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    Keywords

    Política fiscal; pleno empleo; estabilidad de precios; déficit fiscal; ciclo económico; soberanía monetaria.;

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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