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Sincronización de ciclos financieros: caso Colombia - Estados Unidos

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Eduardo Heredia Carrillo
  • Jonathan Pena Castaneda

Abstract

El presente ensayo analiza las interacciones entre los ciclos financieros de Colombia y Estados Unidos. Para los dos países, los ciclos se calculan a partir de la información de endeudamiento y precios de la propiedad durante el periodo 2002-2016. Los resultados de esta operación demuestran que, hay una fuerte relación entre el comportamiento de los mercados financieros en torno a los momentos de crisis y auge, la cual se explica por el contagio de las burbujas especulativas y el ciclo de los commodities en los países emergentes. En consecuencia, la moderada correlación es persistente durante el ciclo, acentuándose en la crisis de 2008 y disminuyendo en los últimos 5 anos debido a la rápida recuperación de Colombia. Por lo anterior, se comparte el pico asociado con la detonación de la crisis financiera, mientras que el valle de su recuperación es diferente para los dos países debido a las diferentes amplitudes de los ciclos. Estos hallazgos permiten construir un entendimiento global de los fenómenos que atanen a un país periférico como Colombia.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Eduardo Heredia Carrillo & Jonathan Pena Castaneda, 2017. "Sincronización de ciclos financieros: caso Colombia - Estados Unidos," Econógrafos, Escuela de Economía 15451, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000176:015451
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    File URL: http://fce.unal.edu.co/centro-editorial/docs/econografos-escuela-economia/106-sincronizacion-de-ciclos-financieros-caso-colombia-estados-unidos
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ciclo financiero; sincronización de ciclos; crédito; precio de los activos; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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