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El sistema contributivo de salud y sus recursos. Un análisis desde la óptica presupuestaria con un modelo SVAR

Author

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  • Nicolás Castellanos Sánchez

Abstract

En este documento se analiza el posible impacto de la reforma tributaria (Ley 1607 de 2012) sobre los recursos recaudados por aportes parafiscales al Sistema General de Seguridad Social en Salud (SGSSS) sujetos a sustitución del Impuesto Sobre la Renta para la Equidad CREE. Mediante un modelo estructural de vectores auto regresivos (SVAR) se calcula el mínimo de financiación estipulado en dicha reforma y se concluye que en un escenario promedio, en el que la reforma tributaria no tenga el impacto esperado sobre el empleo formal, para el ano 2014 el sistema podría estar desfinanciado en casi 0,131% del PIB; por otra parte, bajo un escenario de escaso crecimiento económico esta desfinanciación estaría alrededor de 0.122% del PIB. Por último, si la reforma tributaria tiene el impacto esperado y se incrementa el empleo formal en más de 400.000 empleos, el desfinanciamiento podría llegar a ser de 0,136% del PIB.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolás Castellanos Sánchez, 2014. "El sistema contributivo de salud y sus recursos. Un análisis desde la óptica presupuestaria con un modelo SVAR," Econógrafos, Escuela de Economía 12821, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000176:012821
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    File URL: http://fce.unal.edu.co/centro-editorial/docs/econografos-escuela-economia/68-el-sistema-contributivo-de-salud-y-sus-recursos-un-analisis-desde-la-optica-presupuestaria-con-un-modelo-svar
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    empleo; impuestos; salud; sistema.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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