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El proceso de fluctuación dinámica de la economía colombiana: reconsideraciones teóricas sobre un fenómeno empírico

Author

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  • Omar Fernando Arias Reinoso

Abstract

Este documento ofrece un argumento teórico para comprender el proceso dinámico de fluctuación cíclica de la economía colombiana durante el período 1990-2003. Se contrastan dos hipótesis: la primera, es necesario formular un proceso multiperíodo para describir la dinámica de construcción y formación del capital productivo; y, la segunda, es necesario utilizar funciones de utilidad aditivamente separables que permitan comprender la dinámica de crecimiento del consumo. Se realiza un ejercicio de calibración y análisis econométrico, estructurado sobre la base del modelo de crecimiento equilibrado KP (Kydland y Prescott), con el propósito de explicar la autocorrelación serial del producto agregado de la economía colombiana, y las covarianzas entre la producción agregada con otras variables de series de tiempo.

Suggested Citation

  • Omar Fernando Arias Reinoso, 2006. "El proceso de fluctuación dinámica de la economía colombiana: reconsideraciones teóricas sobre un fenómeno empírico," Documentos de Trabajo UEC 2536, Universidad Externado de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000139:002536
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fluctuación cíclica; capital productivo; funciones de utilidad aditivamente separables; modelo de crecimiento equilibrado de KP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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