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Votes Follow Stakes: Peace Negotiations and Electoral Shifts in Armed-Group Territories

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Weintraub

    (Universidad de los Andes)

  • Santiago Tobón

    (Centro de Investigaciones Económicas y Financieras (CIEF) Escuela de Economía y Finanzas Universidad EAFIT)

Abstract

Peace negotiations reshape the electoral stakes of armed groups and their communities. Using polling-table returns and armed-presence maps, we study Colombia’s 2026 presidential election. Municipalities associated with factions negotiating under paz total, whose warrant and extraction protections depended on the continuity of the incumbent left, shifted five to six percentage points toward it. These municipalities showed no comparable shift in 2018–2022 or the 2026 congressional election. The left nonetheless lost by a 0.98-percent margin. The effects concentrate in Nariño, the factions’ stronghold, and municipalities where monitoring organizations reported compulsory-voting practices. Our design cannot disentangle pressure from support.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Weintraub & Santiago Tobón, 2026. "Votes Follow Stakes: Peace Negotiations and Electoral Shifts in Armed-Group Territories," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 023627, Universidad EAFIT.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000122:023627
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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