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Aspiraciones económicas, conflicto y trampas de pobreza en Colombia

Author

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  • Jhorland Ayala García

Abstract

Uno de los aspectos de la pobreza que no ha sido explorado empíricamente es aquel que tiene que ver con las aspiraciones económicas, entendidas como el deseo o la pretensión de un mayor ingreso futuro. Mediante modelos probit ordenados y estimación por máxima verosimilitud se busca investigar si el conflicto armado tiene algún efecto sobre la formación de las aspiraciones económicas de las personas. Con datos del Proyecto Latinoamericano de Opinión Pública (LAPOP, por sus siglas en inglés) de la Universidad de Vanderbilt para Colombia se encontró que quienes viven en municipios con un mayor nivel de conflicto armado tienen menores aspiraciones económicas que quienes no, y que existen además factores individuales como la edad y el nivel de ingreso, y del entorno como la desigualdad y la inversión municipales que determinan la formación de las aspiraciones de los colombianos.******ABSTRACT: One aspect of poverty that has not been explored empirically is that related to economic aspirations, defined as the desire or pretension of a higher future income. Through ordered probit models and maximum likelihood estimation, I investigate whether the conflict has any effect on the formation of people’s economic aspirations. Using Colombian data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) of Vanderbilt University, I found that people living in municipalities with a higher level of armed conflict have lower economic aspirations than their counterparts, and there are also individual and social environment factors such as age, income level, inequality and public investment that determine the formation of the aspirations of Colombian people.

Suggested Citation

  • Jhorland Ayala García, 2014. "Aspiraciones económicas, conflicto y trampas de pobreza en Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 12384, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000102:012384
    DOI: 10.32468/dtseru.212
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    Keywords

    aspiraciones económicas; conflicto armado; trampas de pobreza.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation

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