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El Comportamiento Reciente De La Inflación De Alimentos Y La Política Comercial Agrícola

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  • María del Pilar Esguerra

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Abstract

En la actual coyuntura inflacionaria, gran parte del aumento de los precios alconsumidor puede atribuirse al comportamiento de los precios de los alimentos,siendo esta la mayor sorpresa en materia de inflación en los primeros meses de2007.Pueden caracterizarse como factores de oferta y demanda los que hancontribuido a acelerar la inflación de los alimentos en la actual coyuntura. Entrelos elementos de demanda cabe mencionar: 1) el gran aumento las ventas dealimentos a Venezuela; 2) la aceleración de la demanda interna en Colombia y3) el crecimiento de los precios internacionales de algunos productossusceptibles de ser transformados en bio-combustibles. Estos factores hancoincidido con elementos de oferta como una nueva aparición del Fenómeno deEl Niño y el inicio de la fase de retención del ciclo ganadero.La demanda mundial por los productos susceptibles de convertirse enenergéticos sin duda ha sido otro elemento que ha presionado a los precios dealgunos bienes agrícolas. Esto no ha ocurrido solo en Colombia sino que haafectado a otros países. En los próximos años este factor tendrá un efectodirecto sobre la inflación mundial al consumidor. Este fenómeno de losbiocombustibles, junto con el cambio climático y la gran demanda de China eIndia, amenazan con que la inflación de alimentos se generalice a nivel mundiala niveles sin precedentes y se convierta en un fenómeno más estructural quemeramente cíclico.Dentro de las alternativas de solución que se han venido planteando, una deellas ha sido una revisión de la política comercial en materia de productosagrícolas y agroindustriales en Colombia. Una rebaja de la protección permitiríaasegurar un abastecimiento adecuado de estos bienes, o por lo menos enaquellos períodos en que se prevé escasez que pueda llevar a un aumentoprolongado de sus precios. Este tipo de política podría contribuir a unamorigeración de estas tendencias. Esta revisión podría ser temporal opermanente de acuerdo con lo que se estima dure el choque en cada producto.

Suggested Citation

  • María del Pilar Esguerra, 2007. "El Comportamiento Reciente De La Inflación De Alimentos Y La Política Comercial Agrícola," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003838, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003838
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    References listed on IDEAS

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