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La Econom�A Colombiana: Situaci�N Actual Frente A Los Noventa Y Sus Perspectivas

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Abstract

En este documento se hace una evaluaci�n tanto de las fortalezas de la econom�a colombiana que contribuir�an a la sostenibilidad actual del crecimiento, como de los factores de riesgo y vulnerabilidades que podr�an afectarlo negativamente. Con este prop�sito se compara el desempe�o macroecon�mico actual con el observado en la d�cada de los noventa, a fin de determinar si los desequilibrios que desembocaron en la crisis de finales de esa d�cada podr�an llegar a repetirse. Para obtener mayor precisi�n en la identificaci�n de riesgos a la sostenibilidad del crecimiento econ�mico actual, el documento presenta proyecciones macroecon�micas para el per�odo 2006-2011, con referencia a un escenario que supone ausencia de choques externos. Sobre esa base se examinan las consecuencias para el crecimiento y la balanza de pagos que se derivar�an de choques desfavorables a los t�rminos de intercambio, ca�da de la demanda mundial y reversi�n de los flujos de capital. Igualmente se analizan las consecuencias para la sostenibilidad fiscal y para la vulnerabilidad del sistema financiero de choques de esa naturaleza. Con este an�lisis se busca ofrecer elementos claves de informaci�n para las autoridades econ�micas y agentes del mercado, que contribuyan al afianzamiento de un crecimiento alto y sostenido, a trav�s de la identificaci�n de riesgos que estimulen la prudencia y faciliten la toma oportuna de decisiones.

Suggested Citation

  • Grupo Macroeconom�a 2006, 2006. "La Econom�A Colombiana: Situaci�N Actual Frente A Los Noventa Y Sus Perspectivas," Borradores de Economia 2980, Banco de la Republica.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002980
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crecimiento econ�mico; balanza de pagos; sostenibilidad fiscal; choques externos;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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