Development and Social Mobility in Colombia: The Evolution of Inequality of Opportunity, 1997–2023

This paper examines whether Colombia’s substantial economic and social development over the last quarter century has been accompanied by improvements in equality of opportunity and social mobility. To do this we analyse inequality of opportunity (IOP) between 1997 and 2023, assessing how family background and inherited circumstances — parental education, birth region, ethnicity, and gender — associate with individual and household income. We harmonise data from 16 waves of the Colombian Living Standards Survey and estimate IOP employing the standard Roemerian framework. In doing so we provide the first long-run analysis of the evolution of opportunity inequality in Colombia, allowing us to assess whether the significant developmental changes observed in the country have translated into greater social mobility. Our results indicate higher contemporary IOP than previously reported, while also documenting a gradual long-term decline in opportunity inequality. Family background and inherited circumstances account for over half of total inequality using the Gini index, with contemporary IOP (2019-2023) estimated at 0.37 (57% of total inequality) for individual income and 0.34 (56%) for household income. Regional analysis reveals a pronounced urban-rural divide, with opportunity advantages concentrated in Bogotá. The long-term decline in opportunity inequality is driven by pro-poor development and coincides with increasing educational mobility alongside declining returns to education. These findings indicate that Colombian society remains characterised by high levels of opportunity inequality and low social mobility. Although Colombia’s economic and social development has been accompanied by increasingly equitable opportunities, developmental progress alone has been insufficient to subtantially weaken the influence of family background on adult incomes.