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El Baile Rojo: impacto de la violencia política sobre el comportamiento electoral, el caso de la Unión Patriótica (1984-2007)


  • Nicolás Cabra-Ruiz


Este documento estudia el efecto causal de la violencia política contra la Unión Patriótica (UP) sobre el comportamiento electoral en las elecciones al poder local (Alcaldía y Concejo municipal) llevadas a cabo en Colombia entre 1984 y 2007. A través de una estrategia empírica de estudios de evento, se encuentra que para las elecciones a Concejo municipal la violencia política contra la UP generó un aumento en los votos a los partidos tradicionales de entre 0.15 y 0.26 desviaciones estándar (DE). Así mismo, redujo los votos a partidos de izquierda entre 0.53 y 0.92 DE y disminuyó la participación política entre 0.27 y 0.44 DE. Por último, a nivel de Alcaldía se encuentra que la violencia contra esta colectividad generó una disminución en la participación electoral de entre 0.2 y 0.24 DE.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolás Cabra-Ruiz, 2023. "El Baile Rojo: impacto de la violencia política sobre el comportamiento electoral, el caso de la Unión Patriótica (1984-2007)," Documentos CEDE 20683, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:020683

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    violencia política; comportamiento electoral; clientelismo; democracia; poder local;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State


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