IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Some Recent Changes in Economic Growth, Cycles and Volatility


  • Ataman Ozyildirim

    (The Conference Board)

  • Victor Zarnowitz

    (The Conference Board)


Countries and periods that benefit from higher economic growth trends are likely to enjoy additional gains from more moderate business cycles; with less frequent and/or milder recessions. Correspondingly, where and when growth gets to be disappointingly low, business cycles are likely to get less moderate, with recessions becoming more frequent and/or more severe. This association may have its source in changes in either the longer growth trends or intermediate cyclical movements. This paper illustrates this broad relationship with two examples from the recent economic history of Japan and the United States. The Japanese case is a dramatic shift from high growth and cyclical stability to stagnation and a succession of booms and busts. The U.S. case, while more moderate, shows similar trend/cycle interactions. The last part of the paper sums up the necessary qualifications and conclusions. It addresses the changes over time in how people perceive the cycle-to-trend (and vice versa) connections, and how the economy reacts to the shocks and imbalances that may cause cyclical fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ataman Ozyildirim & Victor Zarnowitz, 2009. "Some Recent Changes in Economic Growth, Cycles and Volatility," Economics Program Working Papers 09-01, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnf:wpaper:0901

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: First version, 2009
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnf:wpaper:0901. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (A Ozyildirim). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.