IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chk/cuhked/_144.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the use of the sample partial autocorrelation for order determination in a pure autoregressive process: A Monte Carlo study and empirical example

Author

Listed:
  • Andy C.C. Kwan
  • Yangru Wu

Abstract

Sample partial autocorrelations are one of the main statistical tools of time series analysis. They are especially useful in identifying the order of an AR(p) process. In this note, we show via a simulation experiment that normalizing each sample partial autocorrelation with Anderson's (1993a) means and variances, instead of the large-sample moments, can yield asymptotic distributions that are better approximated by the N(0,1) distribution. The important implication of this result is that the true order of a pure autoregressive process can be incorrectly identified due to use of the large-sample mean and variance of sample partial autocorrelations. An empirical example given in Box and Jenkins (1976) is used to highlight this problem.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Andy C.C. Kwan & Yangru Wu, 2002. "On the use of the sample partial autocorrelation for order determination in a pure autoregressive process: A Monte Carlo study and empirical example," Departmental Working Papers _144, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:chk:cuhked:_144
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
    3. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
    4. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1993. "Making a Miracle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 251-272, March.
    6. Jha, Sailesh K. & Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K., 2002. "Dynamics in a transactions-based monetary growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 611-635.
    7. Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "Models and Their Uses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 489-494.
    8. Zhang, Junxi, 2000. "Inflation and Growth: Pecuniary Transactions Costs and Qualitative Equivalence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 1-12, February.
    9. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
    10. Jun-Ichi Itaya & Kazuo Mino, 2003. "Inflation, Transaction Costs and Indeterminacy in Monetary Economies with Endogenous Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(279), pages 451-470, August.
    11. Bond, Eric W. & Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K., 1996. "A General Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth with Human and Physical Capital: Balanced Growth and Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 149-173, January.
    12. Xie Danyang, 1994. "Divergence in Economic Performance: Transitional Dynamics with Multiple Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 97-112, June.
    13. Theodore Palivos & Chong K. Yip & Junxi Zhang, 2003. "Transitional Dynamics and Indeterminacy of Equilibria in an Endogenous Growth Model with a Public Input," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 86-98, February.
    14. Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K, 1992. "Alternative Approaches to Money and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(4), pages 553-562, November.
    15. Theodore Palivos & Chong K. Yip & Junxi Zhang, 2003. "Transitional Dynamics and Indeterminacy of Equilibria in an Endogenous Growth Model with a Public Input," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 86-98, February.
    16. Mino, Kazuo, 2001. "Indeterminacy and Endogenous Growth with Social Constant Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 203-222, March.
    17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 203-220, April.
    18. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. A. C. C. Kwan, 2003. "Sample partial autocorrelations and portmanteau tests for randomness," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 605-609.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chk:cuhked:_144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.