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Monetary Policy and SME Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios Anastasiou

    (Athens University of Economics and Business - Department of Business Administration)

  • Zacharias Bragoudakis

    (Bank of Greece)

  • Christos Kallandranis

    (University of West Attica (UNIWA))

  • Ariston Karagiorgis

    (Athens University of Economics and Business)

  • Steven Ongena

    (University of Zurich - Department Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; NTNU Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))

Abstract

We investigate the impact of monetary policy on the growth and financing expectations of euro area SMEs. Using firm-level data from the ECB's Survey on Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) from 2009 to 2024, we distinguish between conventional interest rate adjustments and unconventional measures. While conventional tightening consistently dampens expectations regarding turnover and credit, unconventional easing elicits ambiguous responses, consistent with a signalling channel where interventions are interpreted as indicators of future macroeconomic distress. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that firm size, credit history, and borrowing constraints significantly moderate these effects. We find that the interest rate and inflation expectation channels dominate transmission, whereas the bank-lending channel plays a subordinate role. These results suggest that the signalling effects of unconventional policy may dampen its efficacy for constrained firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Anastasiou & Zacharias Bragoudakis & Christos Kallandranis & Ariston Karagiorgis & Steven Ongena, 2026. "Monetary Policy and SME Expectations," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 26-08, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2608
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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