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The Value of Pricing Power When Investors Benchmark to Headline Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Amra Hrustanovic

    (University of Zurich - Department of Finance; Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Alexander F. Wagner

    (University of Zurich - Department of Finance; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI); Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

We study equity valuation when investors benchmark firms against headline inflation although pass-through varies across firms. In standard valuation, inflation is valueneutral even with heterogeneous pass-through if investors use firm-specific inflation. Benchmarking to headline inflation conflates nominal cash-flow growth with real performance and shifts discount rates at inflation announcements. Pricing power shapes both channels by enabling greater pass-through and reducing perceived inflation exposure. Empirically, higher-pricing-power firms exhibit smaller stock-price declines and smaller cost-of-capital increases following inflation surprises. The April 2025 tariff announcement yields similar pricing-power-based return differences. These results offer new insights into inflation's implications for asset pricing and valuation.

Suggested Citation

  • Amra Hrustanovic & Alexander F. Wagner, 2026. "The Value of Pricing Power When Investors Benchmark to Headline Inflation," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 26-05, Swiss Finance Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2605
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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