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Credit Spreads, Daily Business Cycle, and Corporate Bond Returns Predictability

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  • Alexey Ivashchenko

    (University of Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

The part of credit spread that is not explained by corporate credit risk forecasts future economic activity. I show that the link with aggregate business risk and bond liquidity risk explains this fi nding. Once I project spreads on these two risk factors, which are readily measurable with the daily frequency, in addition to corporate credit risk, the forecasting power of the residual spread reduces substantially for some macro variables and disappears entirely for the others. Such residual, however, turns out to be an out-of-sample forecast of corporate bond market returns. An investment strategy based on such forecasts delivers risk-adjusted returns 50% higher than the corporate bond market.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexey Ivashchenko, 2017. "Credit Spreads, Daily Business Cycle, and Corporate Bond Returns Predictability," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-67, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jan 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1767
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit spreads; corporate bond returns; business cycle; predictability of returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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