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Identification and Critical Time Forecasting of Real Estate Bubbles in the U.S.A and Switzerland

Author

Listed:
  • Diego ARDILA

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Dorsa SANADGOL

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Peter CAUWELS

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Didier SORNETTE

    (ETH Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two elements: 1) the Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL) model to describe endogenous price dynamics originated from positive feedback loops between economic agents; and 2) a diffusion index method that creates a parsimonious representation of multiple macroeconomic variables. We examine the behavior of our model on the housing price indices of 380 US metropolitan areas, using 15, 35, and 90 national-level macroeconomic time series and a dynamic forecasting methodology. Empirical results suggests that the model is able to forecast the end of the bubbles and to identify variables highly relevant during the bubble regime. In addition, the same methodology is applied to the national housing price index of Switzerland, diagnosing a bubble in which global imbalances and Switzerland's status as a safe haven seem to be playing a dominant role.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego ARDILA & Dorsa SANADGOL & Peter CAUWELS & Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Identification and Critical Time Forecasting of Real Estate Bubbles in the U.S.A and Switzerland," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-44, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1444
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real-estate bubbles; USA and Switzerland; diffusion index; forecasting; log-periodic power law; criticality; positive feedback; sparse partial least squares;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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