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Forecasting E-Substitution and Mail Demand


  • Urs Trinkner


  • Martin Grossmann


Based on historical data from 1980 to 2004 the paper analyzes the main drivers of mail demand and the impact of e-substitution by using time-series techniques. We find strong evidence for e-substitution. In the second part of the paper we provide forecasts for future mail volumes.

Suggested Citation

  • Urs Trinkner & Martin Grossmann, 2005. "Forecasting E-Substitution and Mail Demand," Working Papers 0002, Swiss Economics, revised Jul 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:chc:wpaper:0002

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Helmut M. Dietl & Peter Waller, 2002. "Competing With Mr. Postman: Business Strategies, Industry Structure, And Competitive Prices In Liberalized Letter Markets," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 54(2), pages 148-170, April.
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    More about this item


    Regulation; Liberalization; Universal Service; Worksharing;

    JEL classification:

    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • L87 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Postal and Delivery Services


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