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Un Test Conjunto de Superioridad Predictiva para los Pronósticos de Inflación Chilena

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  • Pablo Pincheira B.

Abstract

Optimality under quadratic loss implies that forecasts built using a large information set should perform al least as well as forecasts built using a more restricted and nested information set. In this article we use a joint test of superior predictive ability to test this optimality condition for the term structure of several Chilean inflation forecasts coming from the following sources: Bloomberg, Consensus Economics, the Survey of Professional Forecasters and an average of selected seasonal univariate models. We do this by taking advantage of the fact that these sets of forecasts are built at different moments in time and, more importantly, using different and nested information sets. Our results indicate that the null hypothesis of optimality under quadratic loss cannot be rejected when Mean Squared Error is used to evaluate the term structure of the forecasts. Nevertheless, when the joint test is carried out to evaluate the term structure of the Mean Squared Forecasts, as suggested by Patton and Timmermann (2010), the joint test rejects the null hypothesis of optimality. Further analysis of our results reveals that this rejection is associated with a violation of an orthogonality condition that should be satisfied when forecasts are optimal. Moreover, this violation seems to stand both across different sources of forecasts and across different forecasting horizons. This suggests that there is room for improvement in the term structure of Chilean inflation forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Pincheira B., 2011. "Un Test Conjunto de Superioridad Predictiva para los Pronósticos de Inflación Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 620, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:620
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    1. Chari, V. V. & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1996. "Optimality of the Friedman rule in economies with distorting taxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 203-223, April.
    2. Orazio P. Attanasio & Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2002. "The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation, and the Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Household Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 317-351, April.
    3. Joydeep Bhattacharya & Joseph H. Haslag & Antoine Martin, 2005. "Heterogeneity, Redistribution, And The Friedman Rule," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(2), pages 437-454, May.
    4. Claeys, Sophie & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2008. "Determinants of bank interest margins in Central and Eastern Europe: A comparison with the West," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 197-216, June.
    5. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
    6. Kimbrough, Kent, 1989. "Optimal taxation in a monetary economy with financial intrmediaries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 493-511.
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