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After the Big Push? Fiscal and Institutional Implications of Large Aid Increases


  • Todd Moss


  • Arvind Subramanian


There are indications that overseas development assistance budgets will continue to increase in coming years, spurred in part by growing calls for a ‘Big Push’ in aid to the poorest countries. In this paper, we estimate the effect of six proposals on aid intensity ratios for 52 low-income countries. We find that, in the average scenario, at least 35 of these countries would see aid inflows equivalent to more than half of total public expenditure and 17 would cross the 75 percent threshold. We also consider possible negative influences of such increases on the incentives for institutional development, on the accountability of state institutions to their own populations, and on long-term sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd Moss & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "After the Big Push? Fiscal and Institutional Implications of Large Aid Increases," Working Papers 71, Center for Global Development.
  • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:71

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hiau LooiKee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2009. "Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 172-199, January.
    2. Anderson, James E & Neary, J Peter, 1994. "Measuring the Restrictiveness of Trade Policy," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(2), pages 151-169, May.
    3. William Cline, 2002. "An Index of Industrial Country Trade Policy Toward Developing Countries," Working Papers 14, Center for Global Development.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernard Walters, 2007. "The Fiscal Implications of Scaling up ODA to Deal with the HIV/AIDS Pandemic," Conference Paper 3, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.

    More about this item


    overseas development assistance; big push;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid

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