A Forest Per Worker: Quantifying the CO2 Reduction Contribution of the Marginal “Green” (Migrant) Worker

Workforce constraints are a widespread bottleneck to decarbonisation, hindering implementation and investment. In a novel exercise, we model the decarbonisation impact of the marginal contribution of a “green-skilled” worker in contexts of labour shortage across six countries in two occupations: an electrician installing residential rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, and a heating technician installing residential heat pumps, during the period 2024 – 2032. We find that the additional (“marginal”) worker can contribute thousands of tonnes of CO2 abatement, even when accounting for rapid grid decarbonisation. The marginal worker’s contribution can have a monetised social value of hundreds of thousands of dollars. It is the equivalent of planting thousands of trees: a forest per worker. On this basis, we argue that labour shortages must not be allowed to constrain decarbonisation activities. Where domestic training cannot meet demand, labour migration is a valuable policy tool. Because workers may make larger contributions in countries of origin than in countries of destination, however, we note that care must be taken to avoid implementation gaps caused by brain drain in countries of origin. Partnerships that combine training and labour migration partnerships can mitigate these risks.