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Consumer Confidence in Portugal - What does it really matter?


  • Antonio Caleiro

    () (Universidade de Evora, Departamento de Economia, CEFAGE-UE)

  • Esmeralda Ramalho

    () (Universidade de Evora, Departamento de Economia, CEFAGE-UE)

  • Andreia Dionísio

    () (Universidade de Evora, Departamento de Economia, CEFAGE-UE)


Confidence, in general, and consumer confidence, in particular, are subject to an increasing interest by many agents, such as central banks and governments, at a national level, as well as by supra-national entities, such as the European Commission of the European Union. Although this interest is shared by the academic community, the literature in this area is mainly focussed on the use of consumer confidence to predict variables which describe the business cycle, like consumption. Instead, the objective of our paper is to analyse the evolution of consumer confidence in Portugal and examine which factors underpin its formation. Our empirical study uses monthly data for the period January 1987 — December 2008. We find that consumer confidence, besides presenting some inertia, is basically explained by electoral circumstances.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Caleiro & Esmeralda Ramalho & Andreia Dionísio, 2009. "Consumer Confidence in Portugal - What does it really matter?," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2009_13, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
  • Handle: RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2009_13

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    Consumer Confidence; Elections; Portugal;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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