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Drivers, Costs, and Coping: An Expert View on Economic Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Agnesa Nimanaj

  • Daria Schaller

  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Key MessagesExperts rate current economic uncertainty in their country as high, at 60.7 on a 0–100 scale on averageGeopolitical tensions and conflicts are considered the primary driver of uncertaintyKey structural vulnerabilities are weak institutional and governance frameworks, followed by high dependence on commodity importsOn average, experts estimate that uncertainty lowers expected GDP growth by 0.8 percentage pointsEconomies are seen as resilient where shocks can be buffered quickly but weak where resilience must be built over time

Suggested Citation

  • Agnesa Nimanaj & Daria Schaller & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2026. "Drivers, Costs, and Coping: An Expert View on Economic Uncertainty," EconPol Policy Brief 86, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:econpb:_86
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/EconPol_Policy_Brief_86.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom, 2014. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 153-176, Spring.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, December.
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    4. Stefan Lautenbacher & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2021. "How Difficult Is It for Managers to Predict Their Future Business Development? A New Measure of Perceived Business Uncertainty," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(01), pages 40-42, January.
    5. Steven J. Davis, 2016. "An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 22740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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