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What Do Economists Think About Tariffs? Insights from the Economic Experts Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Heil
  • Emilie Höslinger
  • Niklas Potrafke
  • Tuuli Tähtinnen
  • Emilie Antonia Höslinger
  • Tuuli Tähtinen

Abstract

Key Messages• On average, experts from the EU expect tariffs on US imports to be around 5 percentage points higher than they would recommend.• Tariff expectations are higher and more varied across European countries for US goods than for all imports.• Expert recommendations for tariffs diverge widely across European countries.• US experts recommend low tariffs on EU imports, despite expecting higher rates.• Gaps between expected and recommended tariffs highlight policy challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Heil & Emilie Höslinger & Niklas Potrafke & Tuuli Tähtinnen & Emilie Antonia Höslinger & Tuuli Tähtinen, 2025. "What Do Economists Think About Tariffs? Insights from the Economic Experts Survey," EconPol Policy Brief 76, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:econpb:_76
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/EconPol-Policy_Brief_76-tariffs.pdf
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