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Preferences for the Poorest: New Data and Sectoral Evidence on Non-Reciprocal Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Larch
  • Yoto V. Yotov

Abstract

Non-reciprocal preferential trade arrangements (PTAs), such as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), are the main trade policy instrument for developing countries. Yet, existing data track changes in eligibility only coarsely and evidence on their effects is mixed. We introduce a database of 38 schemes (1950–2025) coding graduations, suspensions, and lapses. Structural gravity analysis finds no significant average effect, and none for beneficiaries other than least developed countries (LDCs). For LDCs, preferences raise exports to grantors by 34 percent, and GSP preferences by 88 percent. These gains concentrate in apparel and footwear and are not captured by tariffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2026. "Preferences for the Poorest: New Data and Sectoral Evidence on Non-Reciprocal Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 13091, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13091
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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