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Global Hydropower Exposure to Rainfall Variability: Historical Estimates and the 2026/27 El Niño

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  • Stephane Hallegatte

Abstract

Hydropower is the generation technology most exposed to interannual climate variability. This paper estimates empirically that exposure at the country level and applies it to the 2026/27 El Niño season, using seasonal forecasts for precipitations. Output is measured as the capacity factor — generation divided by the installed fleet — using a plant-level capacity panel. On 4,853 country-year observations across 117 countries over 1981–2024, a 10 percentage-point shortfall in annual precipitation reduces the hydropower capacity factor by 4.57% in the year it occurs and by a further 3.22% in the year after, with the total impact of a shortfall sustained over two years reaching 7.65% (p

Suggested Citation

  • Stephane Hallegatte, 2026. "Global Hydropower Exposure to Rainfall Variability: Historical Estimates and the 2026/27 El Niño," CESifo Working Paper Series 13068, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13068
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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