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Lessons for the FOMC’s Monetary Policy Strategy

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  • Carl E. Walsh
  • Carl Walsh

Abstract

The current 5-year review of the FOMC’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy provides an opportunity to assess the revisions made in 2020. I review the rationale behind the 2020 revisions and then discuss the new operational objectives: asymmetric average inflation targeting and shortfalls from maximum employment. Macroeconomic developments since 2020 led to an environment that was very different than the one anticipated when the 2020 policy framework was adopted. In this new environment, the 2020 changes created a risk that the US would suffer a repeat of the 1970s, a risk compounded by the FOMC’s slow reaction as inflation rose during 2021-2022. I illustrate the consequences of such a delay in addressing high inflation. The experience of the past five years offers some new lessons for the current review of the policy framework, as well as reinforcing the importance of some old lessons.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl E. Walsh & Carl Walsh, 2025. "Lessons for the FOMC’s Monetary Policy Strategy," CESifo Working Paper Series 12056, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12056
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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