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Moving Online Under de Minimis? Import Tariffs and International Retail E-commerce

Author

Listed:
  • Te Du
  • Chao Fang
  • Shuzhong Ma
  • Lixin Tang
  • Zhihong Yu

Abstract

The rapid growth of international retail e-commerce has drawn scrutiny to the US de minimis rule, which exempts low-value imports from tariffs. This paper analyzes how the rule shapes the small-value e-commerce trade. We examine whether tariff increases during the 2018–2019 US–China trade war led consumers to substitute toward tariff-exempt e-commerce imports from China. Using proprietary parcel-level data from a major logistics firm, we find that a 10-percentage-point increase in tariffs raised monthly parcel volume by 3% in panel regressions and by 7% in long-difference specifications. These estimates imply that trade-war tariffs increased e-commerce imports by 5.3%–13.5%—substantial, yet modest compared to the spectacular overall ecommerce growth over 2017-2019. The response is stronger in more densely populated ZIP Codes but does not vary by income or race.

Suggested Citation

  • Te Du & Chao Fang & Shuzhong Ma & Lixin Tang & Zhihong Yu, 2025. "Moving Online Under de Minimis? Import Tariffs and International Retail E-commerce," CESifo Working Paper Series 12033, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12033
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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce

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