The subjective well-being consequences of short-term forced displacement

How does an episode of forced displacement affect the subjective well-being of victims upon their return? To answer this question, we study the weeklong inter-ethnic conflict that occurred in southern Kyrgyzstan in June 2010, using individual survey data for 2006–2019. Our baseline analysis compares conflict-affected displaced individuals with unaffected individuals while controlling for observable characteristics. To address the potential endogeneity of displacement, we complement these estimates with an instrumental-variables strategy based on household-level geographic features, including proximity to conflict-related destruction and the availability of nearby locations suitable for temporary hiding. We also use a difference-in-differences design to trace changes in local subjective well-being over time. Our results show that even short-term displacement is associated with a substantial decline in postconflict subjective well-being. This negative effect is attenuated among individuals who received support from family and friends during displacement. The effects also vary markedly across dimensions of subjective well-being, with the strongest negative impacts observed for satisfaction with dwelling, health, security, and future prospects. Although the subjective well-being of displaced individuals gradually converges toward that of non-displaced individuals, recovery is slow and takes several years.