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“Oh, Give Me a Home (Trade Share)”: Differential Import Price Inflation and Gains from Trade Across U.S. Households

Author

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  • Colin J. Hottman
  • Ryan Monarch

Abstract

Consumers are differentially exposed to trade based on their expenditures, but there is little data on how such trade exposure differs across consumer groups and over time. In this paper, we construct “home trade shares” that vary by age, race, marital status, education, and urban status, and use these to analyze differences in inflation and welfare gains from trade for U.S. demographic groups over the years 1996–2018. We show that over this time period, import prices (inclusive of the effects of taste change) held down overall inflation for all groups. For the typical group, more than a quarter of the gains from trade relative to autarky accrued in our time period. Welfare gains from trade over our time period are largest for rural households, and smallest for Black households. Adding taste change to the typical welfare gains from trade formula boosts the gains for every group relative to the standard formula.

Suggested Citation

  • Colin J. Hottman & Ryan Monarch, 2025. "“Oh, Give Me a Home (Trade Share)”: Differential Import Price Inflation and Gains from Trade Across U.S. Households," Working Papers 25-47, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-47
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    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2025/adrm/ces/CES-WP-25-47.pdf
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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