Bringing Virtue Back: How Domestic and International Factors Shape Presidential Success in Latin America

To what extent can Latin American presidents turn economic policy choices into electoral success in economies vulnerable to global fluctuations? This paper revisits the debate on economic voting and democratic accountability in the region, challenging the view that external forces predominantly determine incumbents' electoral fortunes. We code a dataset of presidential elections in Latin America since democratisation and examine how domestic macroeconomic conditions shape the electoral continuity of political projects, while accounting for global economic conditions. Our findings show that domestic policy choices matter. Higher public expenditure increases the likelihood of electoral success, but this effect depends on public debt levels. In countries with low or moderate debt, fiscal expansion can be an effective electoral strategy. Under high indebtedness, its electoral returns vanish or even turn negative. These findings suggest that presidential success in Latin America is not merely a matter of luck, but also of policy choices, albeit made under economic and political constraints.