IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ciclos econômicos e a composição da pobreza no Brasil: uma análise para as décadas recentes


  • Ricardo Agostini Martini


  • Ana Maria Hermeto C. de Oliveira


  • Frederico G. Jayme Júnior



This work assesses the impact of macroeconomic cycles on poverty composition in the Brazilian economy (1987 – 2005). Specifically, it intends to find answers to three questions: first, who are the demographic groups that are most harmed in the recessive cycles; second, if economic growth in itself sufficient to benefit the groups most associated with poverty; third, which are the macroeconomic policies most associated with poverty and with its alleviation. The study used an interaction of micro data form PNAD with macroeconomic data from sources such as IPEA-DATA, Brazilian Central Bank and Secretariat of the Federal Revenue of Brazil. Using logistical regressions with pooled micro-data banks, the work found two main results. First, recession and economic downturns, are more harmful to people with less schooling. Second, tax policy significantly affects poverty: firstly the primary surplus is associated with lower levels of well-being of the population and, on the other hand, the welfare expenditure of the Union may be used to alleviate poverty during the critical stages of the cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Agostini Martini & Ana Maria Hermeto C. de Oliveira & Frederico G. Jayme Júnior, 2011. "Ciclos econômicos e a composição da pobreza no Brasil: uma análise para as décadas recentes," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td436, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td436

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    Macroeconomic Cycles; Welfare Economics; Pooled Cross-Section Models; Poverty alleviation; Brazil.;

    JEL classification:

    • C29 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Other
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td436. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gustavo Britto). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.