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Câmbio, crescimento e heterogeneidade produtiva num modelo keynesiano-estruturalista

  • Fabrício Missio

    (UEMS and Cedeplar-UFMG)

  • José Luis Oreiro

    (UNB)

  • Frederico G. Jayme Jr

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

The aim of this paper is to show theoretically and empirically that undervalued real exchange rate has positive effects over economic growth on developing countries. We analyze the relationship between growth, exchange rate and productive heterogeneity by means of a Keynesian-Structuralist model. We depart from the Bhaduri and Marglin model, which establishes a connection between accumulation regimes and growth. The standard model will be modified by means of the introduction of a non-linear function of capital accumulation in which investment is a quadratic function of real exchange rate. In this setting, changes in the real exchange rate can affect expenditure decisions of the firms, mainly the expenditure in innovation. Besides, following the work of Dosi, Pavitt and Soete, income elasticities of exports and imports 0will depend on real exchange rate. It is shown that a real exchange rate devaluation, by means of a reduction of real wages, will affect the level of productive heterogeneity of the economy. Finally, it is presented a long-run solution and some empirical evidences about the relation between real exchange rate and income elasticities of exports. The long-run solution finds multiple equilibrium, showing that a higher growth rate is possible only by means of a devaluate real exchange rate. The empirical results show a positive relation between income elasticity of exports and real exchange rate for all countries in the sample, which means that, independently of technological gap, devaluation of real exchange rate can increase long-run growth.

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Paper provided by Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in its series Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG with number td413.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td413
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