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Repercussões setoriais e regionais da crise econômica de 2009 no Brasil: simulações em um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável de dinâmica recursiva

Author

Listed:
  • Edson Paulo Domingues

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

  • Admir Antonio Betarelli Junior

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

  • Aline Souza Magalhães

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

  • Terciane Sabadini Carvalho

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

  • Flaviane Souza Santiago

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of economic downturn with the crisis of 2009 on the Brazilian economy, especially on activity sectors and states. To get a consistent picture of these impacts, which takes into account economic macroeconomic indicators and sectoral data (exports and imports), a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model is used. The model´s results allow differentiating the regional and sectoral impacts according to local demand and exports, as well as the role of government spending in damping of crisis. Moreover, the impacts of some temporary reductions of IPI (equipments and cars) are analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Edson Paulo Domingues & Admir Antonio Betarelli Junior & Aline Souza Magalhães & Terciane Sabadini Carvalho & Flaviane Souza Santiago, 2010. "Repercussões setoriais e regionais da crise econômica de 2009 no Brasil: simulações em um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável de dinâmica recursiva," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td390, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td390
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    Keywords

    Financial crisis; economic sectors; general equilibrium; recursive dynamic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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