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Metas de inflação e investimento: o caso do Brasil

Author

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  • Marco Flavio da Cunha Resende

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

  • Fabiana Lima

    (PUC-SP)

Abstract

In this paper two hypotheses about the relationship between monetary policy and investment in the context of the inflation target system were tested. One of these hypotheses is based on the idea of neutrality of money, and the other hypothesis is based on the reject of that idea. An investment equation for the Brazilian economy was estimated (1848-2005), and a proxy for current expectations about monetary policy was adopted as one of the independent variables of the equation. Structural break tests for the equation were conduced by the assumption of changes on the coefficients of the equation after the inflation target system implementation. Another equation using piece-wise dummy variable was estimated. The results highlight that a negative correlation between current expectation of restrictive monetary policy and current investment rose after the inflation target system implementation.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Flavio da Cunha Resende & Fabiana Lima, 2007. "Metas de inflação e investimento: o caso do Brasil," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td316, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td316
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    File URL: http://www.cedeplar.ufmg.br/pesquisas/td/TD%20316.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation target; monetary policy; investment;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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