Transit-Oriented Development and Commuting Patterns in a Gentrifying Bay Area: Exploring the Relationships Between Neighborhood Change, Displacement, and Implications for Transit Use

This study examines the relationship between transit-oriented development (TOD), gentrification, and commuting behavior in the San Francisco Bay Area from 1990 to 2023. TOD has been promoted as a strategy to reduce automobile dependence and greenhouse gas emissions by concentrating housing and jobs near high-quality transit. Critics, however, argue that TOD may accelerate gentrification and displacement, reducing transit ridership if higher-income households replace transit-dependent residents. Using decennial Census data (1990, 2000) and American Community Survey estimates (2010–2023), all standardized to 2010 block group geographies, I constructed a Baseline Vulnerability Index to identify neighborhoods susceptible to gentrification and a Gentrification Change Index to measure shifts in demographic, income, education, and housing over time. These measures were linked to changes in commute mode shares to assess whether neighborhood change near TOD has influenced transit and car commuting. Findings indicate that TOD station areas gentrified more rapidly than other neighborhoods: 34% of vulnerable block groups in station areas gentrified between 1990 and 2019, compared with 26% in one-mile buffer zones and 20% beyond one mile. Gentrifying TOD neighborhoods also demonstrated a disproportionate increase in new transit commuters between 2010 and 2019. However, post-2020 data reveal sharper declines in transit commuting and modest increases in car commuting in gentrifying TODs, reflecting the impact of remote work and differences in how higher- and lower-income households use transit. The results suggest that while TOD-related gentrification may support transit commuting in some contexts, in a post-COVID world, it poses risks for long-term equity outcomes and overall ridership resilience.