Comparative Analysis of Global Transportation/Energy Models: Methodologies, Scenarios and Policy Implications

This paper compares global transportation/energy models in terms of scope, structure and the types of scenarios that have been developed, with particular emphasis on projections of low-carbon fuels like hydrogen, biofuels, e-fuels and electricity in transportation decarbonization scenarios. Our review of the models and their scenarios indicates that scenarios with deep CO2 reduction or globally ambitious climate policies tend to show a large increase in the role of electrification, advanced biofuels and in some cases hydrogen in transport energy by 2050 and/or later years. Different transport modes and sectors have different requirements and are projected to adopt different low-carbon fuels. Electricity is projected to play a key role in road and rail, though liquid low-carbon fuels dominate shipping and aviation and are expected to eventually surpass petroleum use. Deep CO2 reduction scenarios tend to assume strong policies that drive reductions. Policies such as efficiency standards, technology requirements, achieving technological innovation, and infrastructure investment are typically important drivers for influencing the adoption and scale-up of low-carbon technologies and fuels across regions.