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Technology and Fuel Transition Scenarios to Low Greenhouse Gas Futures for Cars and Trucks in California to 2050

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  • Miller, Marshall
  • Fulton, Lewis
  • Yang, Hong
  • Zhao, Jingyuan
  • Burke, Andrew

Abstract

The savings to California from transitioning to zero-emission cars and trucks by 2050 is about $300 billion. These savings result mostly from the cost of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) dropping close to or below the cost of gasoline and diesel vehicles; additional savings come from operational cost advantages. Policies at the state and national level, as well as the success of ZEV manufacturers, will affect California’s ability to achieve ZEV adoption targets and realize net economic benefits. However, even in the absence of ZEV-supportive policies, the global embrace of electric vehicles and the resulting cost reductions from innovation and scale economies will lead to substantial benefits and savings for California.

Suggested Citation

  • Miller, Marshall & Fulton, Lewis & Yang, Hong & Zhao, Jingyuan & Burke, Andrew, 2025. "Technology and Fuel Transition Scenarios to Low Greenhouse Gas Futures for Cars and Trucks in California to 2050," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt40k5w5h9, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt40k5w5h9
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