Capabilities, Costs, and Constraints: A Realist Reassessment of China’s Rise in East Asia

China’s rise is widely viewed as a destabilizing force in East Asia, prompting concerns of heightened military competition or even an arms race. This paper challenges such assumptions by reexamining traditional security threats through the lens of realist theory. Drawing on offensive and defensive realism, it argues that China’s capabilities and revisionist intentions—while significant—do not warrant the level of alarm often portrayed. Regional capability balances, geographic buffers, and the high costs of territorial aggression constrain China’s ability to project traditional military power. Moreover, China’s increasing reliance on gray-zone tactics and geoeconomic tools suggests a strategic shift away from direct military confrontation. Empirical analysis reveals that East Asian states’ military responses remain moderate, especially when compared globally. Taken together, this study offers a more calibrated understanding of East Asia’s evolving security landscape.