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Research and Development as an Investment

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  • Hall, Bronwyn H.
  • Hayashi, Fumio

Abstract

About 20 percent of the gross investment expenditures of U.S. manufacturing firms is expenditures on research and development. Like investment in physical capital, R&D also responds to news about future prospects of the firm, such as profitability, technological opportunities, or changes in factor prices. Using data from a panel of large U.S. manufacturing firms that was developed within the Productivity Program of the NBER, we investigate the differential responses of these two types of investment to changes in the value of the firm's assets as perceived by financial markets and the interaction of these responses. In order to study this topic empirically, we develop a stochastic dynamic programming model of a firm with two types of capital (physical and knowledge capital) which are used to produce profits. A feature of the model is the distinction between the accumulation of the two kinds of capital: expenditures on the physical capital stock are incurred one or more years before the capital actually becomes productive, whereas R&D capital is produced jointly as a function of current expenditure and the past technological position of the firm. Two individual firm specific shocks are considered: one to the overall profitability of the firm, and one to the "productivity" of R&D. In the empirical estimates, we find that these two shocks account for about 20 percent of the total variance in net investment, 15 percent of the variance in the firm-level R&D to capital ratio, but only about 5 percent of the annual rates of return. The profitability shock is well described by a moving average process of order three, while the technology shock process is more nearly permanent: first order autoregressive with parameter near unity.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hall, Bronwyn H. & Hayashi, Fumio, 1989. "Research and Development as an Investment," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8br8d266, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt8br8d266
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bronwyn H. Hall & Zvi Griliches & Jerry A. Hausman, 1984. "Patents and R&D: Is There A Lag?," NBER Working Papers 1454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Zvi Griliches, 1984. "Market Value, R&D, and Patents," NBER Chapters,in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 249-252 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    4. Ariél Pakes & Zvi Griliches, 1984. "Estimating Distributed Lags in Short Panels with an Application to the Specification of Depreciation Patterns and Capital Stock Constructs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 243-262.
    5. Pakes, Ariel, 1985. "On Patents, R&D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 390-409, April.
    6. Epstein, Larry G & Denny, Michael G S, 1983. "The Multivariate Flexible Accelerator Model: Its Empirical Restrictions and an Application to U.S. Manufacturing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 647-674, May.
    7. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    8. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Siskos, Pelopidas & Capros, Pantelis & De Vita, Alessia, 2015. "CO2 and energy efficiency car standards in the EU in the context of a decarbonisation strategy: A model-based policy assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 22-34.
    2. James R. Hines, Jr. & R. Glenn Hubbard & Joel Slemrod, 1993. "On the Sensitivity of R&D to Delicate Tax Changes: The Behavior of U. S. Multinationals in the 1980s," NBER Chapters,in: Studies in International Taxation, pages 149-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bronwyn H. Hall & Clint Cumminq & Elizabeth S. Laderman & Joy Mundy, 1988. "The R&D Master File Documentation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Doraszelski, Ulrich & Jaumandreu, Jordi, 2006. "R&D and productivity: Estimating production functions when productivity is endogenous," MPRA Paper 1246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bronwyn Hall, 1992. "R&D Tax Policy During the Eighties: Success or Failure?," NBER Working Papers 4240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hall, Bronwyn H., 1992. "Investment and Research and Development at the Firm Level: Does the Source of Financing Matter?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5j59j6x3, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    7. Mark Schankerman, 1991. "Revisions of Investment Plans and the Stock Market Rate of Return," STICERD - Economics of Industry Papers 05, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    8. Saul Lach & Rafael Rob, 1996. "R&D, Investment, and Industry Dynamics," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, June.
    9. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "R&D and productivity: the unfinished business," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 25(2 Year 19), pages 145-160, December.
    10. König, Heinz & Laisney, François & Lechner, Michael & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 1993. "On the dynamics of process innovative activity: an empirical investigation using panel data," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-08, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    11. Laurie Hunter & Elizabeth Webster & Anne Wyatt, 2005. "Measuring Intangible Capital: A Review of Current Practice," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 15(36), pages 4-21, July.
    12. Mark Schankerman, 1991. "Revisions and Investment Plans and the Stock Market Rate of Return," NBER Working Papers 3937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Bronwyn H. Hall, 1999. "Innovation and Market Value," Finance 9902009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Dietmar Harhoff, 1998. "Are there Financing Constraints for R&D and Investment in German Manufacturing Firms," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 49-50, pages 421-456.
    15. Klette, Tor Jakob & Møen, Jarle, 2011. "R&D investment responses to R&D subsidies: A theoretical analysis and a microeconometric study," Discussion Papers 2011/15, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    16. Daniel J. Wilson, 2005. "Beggar thy neighbor? the in-state vs. out-of-state impact of state R&D tax credits," Working Paper Series 2005-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Aurora A. C. Teixeira, 2004. "How Has the Portuguese Innovation Capability Evolved? Estimating a Time Series of the Stock of Technological Knowledge, 1960-2001," FEP Working Papers 153, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    18. James D. Adams & J. Roger Clemmons & Paula E. Stephan, 2006. "How Rapidly Does Science Leak Out?," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0612, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
    19. Bronwyn H. Hall, 2006. "R&D, productivity and market value," IFS Working Papers W06/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

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