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Merger Simulation: A Simplified Approach with New Applications

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  • Rubinfeld, Daniel L.
  • Epstein, Roy J.

Abstract

Merger simulation is growing in importance as a tool to evaluate the unilateral competitive effects of mergers. This paper offers a relatively non-technical description of the principles of merger simulation. In addition, it introduces PCAIDS, a new and highly flexible "calibrated-demand" merger simulation methodology that is based on a simplified version of AIDS. PCAIDS can be implemented using market shares and two price elasticities; scanner or transaction-level data are not required. The paper offers some applications of merger simulation with PCAIDS that include comparisons with other simulation models. It also shows how PCAIDS can be applied to the analysis of efficiencies, divestiture, and product repositioning/entry. Finally, the paper offers an analysis of the Merger Guidelines safeharbors. A detailed mathematical appendix is included.

Suggested Citation

  • Rubinfeld, Daniel L. & Epstein, Roy J., 2001. "Merger Simulation: A Simplified Approach with New Applications," Competition Policy Center, Working Paper Series qt2sq9s8c8, Competition Policy Center, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:compol:qt2sq9s8c8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Budzinski & Isabel Ruhmer, 2010. "Merger Simulation In Competition Policy: A Survey," Journal of Competition Law and Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 277-319.
    2. Daljord, Øystein & Sørgard, Lars, 2011. "Single-product versus uniform SSNIPs," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 142-146, June.
    3. Kaplow, Louis & Shapiro, Carl, 2007. "Antitrust," Handbook of Law and Economics, Elsevier.
    4. repec:eee:indorg:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:216-247 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Björnerstedt, Jonas & Verboven, Frank, 2012. "Does Merger Simulation Work? A "Natural Experiment" in the Swedish Analgesics Market Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 9027, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Kai Hüschelrath, 2009. "Detection Of Anticompetitive Horizontal Mergers," Journal of Competition Law and Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 683-721.
    7. Gregory Swinand & Hugh Hennessy, 2014. "Estimating postal demand elasticities using the PCAIDS method," Chapters,in: The Role of the Postal and Delivery Sector in a Digital Age, chapter 5, pages 65-74 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Nisvan Erkal & Daniel Piccinin, 2006. "Horizontal Mergers with Free Entry in Differentiated Oligopolies," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 976, The University of Melbourne.
    9. Hüschelrath, Kai, 2009. "Methodologische Grundlagen einer Evaluation von Wettbewerbspolitik," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-084, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    10. Peter Davis & Pasquale Schiraldi, 2014. "The flexible coefficient multinomial logit (FC-MNL) model of demand for differentiated products," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(1), pages 32-63, March.
    11. Stenborg, Markku, 2004. "Are There Biases in the Market Definition Procedure?," Discussion Papers 903, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    12. Gary Gorton & Matthias Kahl & Richard Rosen, 2005. "Eat or Be Eaten: A Theory of Mergers and Merger Waves," NBER Working Papers 11364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Marie Goppelsroeder & Maarten Pieter Schinkel & Jan Tuinstra, 2006. "Quantifying the Scope for Efficiency Defense in Merger Control: The Werden-Froeb-Index," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-074/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Richard Dagen & Daniel Richards, 2006. "Merger Theory and Evidence: The Baby-Food Case Reconsidered," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0602, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    15. Jerome Foncel & Marc Ivaldi & Jrisy Motis, 2008. "An Econometric Workbench for Comparing the Substantive and Dominance Tests in Horizontal Merger Analysis," Working Papers 0833, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    16. Juan Pablo Herrera Saavedra & Dennis Sánchez Navarro, 2016. "Efectos de integraciones de firmas en mercados de bienes homogéneos," REVISTA FINANZAS Y POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA DE COLOMBIA, vol. 8(1), pages 157-164, March.
    17. Lundmark, Robert & Wårell, Linda, 2008. "Horizontal mergers in the iron ore industry--An application of PCAIDS," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 129-141, September.
    18. Bush, C. Anthony, 2014. "Bridging the gap between horizontal and vertical merger simulation: Modifications and extensions of PCAID," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-33, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    19. Alena Zemplinerova, 2010. "Competition policy and economic analysis: What can we learn from firm and industry data?," CERGE-EI Books, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague, edition 1, number b07.
    20. Oliver Budzinski, 2008. "A Note on Competing Merger Simulation Models in Antitrust Cases: Can the Best Be Identified?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200803, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    antitrust; merger simulation; unilateral effects; empirical methods; JEL: L40;

    JEL classification:

    • L40 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - General

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