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Strategic Cops and Robbers?

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Mastrobuoni
  • Emily Owens

Abstract

We propose a new framework to investigate whether criminals exhibit strategic behavior in response to the criminal law and their enforcement. Unique data on commercial robberies in Milan allow us to examine the decisions robbers make regarding weapon choice, number of accomplices, and the type of business targeted. Our analysis explores the relationship between these decisions, the expected return from the robbery, and the probability of arrest, considering the constraints imposed by Italian law, which prescribes differential punishments based on certain criminal choices. We find some evidence that robbers act in accordance with expected utility maximization, particularly when operating in groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Mastrobuoni & Emily Owens, 2025. "Strategic Cops and Robbers?," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 741 JEL Classification: K, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    • Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:741
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