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An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Revenue Projections

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  • Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

This report assesses the quality of the revenue projections that CBO has made since 1982 by comparing them with actual revenue collections. Specifically, it looks at the projections for the budget year (the next fiscal year after the year in which the projections are made) and for the sixth year of the agency’s baseline projection period (including the current year). The average error for CBO’s budget-year projections is 1.2 percent, indicating that CBO has slightly overestimated revenues. For the agency’s sixth-year projections, the average error is greater—5.6 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Congressional Budget Office, 2020. "An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Revenue Projections," Reports 56499, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:report:56499
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-08/56499-Revenue-Forecasting.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • H29 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Other

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