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Household Exposure to Flooding

Author

Listed:
  • Kilgarrif, Kilgarriff

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Adhikari, Tamanna

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

Cumulative risk over a 30-year mortgage is substantial: Households with a high likelihood of flooding (a 10% annual probability) face a 96% cumulative probability of experiencing at least one flood event over the term of the mortgage. Flood exposure will intensify under future climate scenarios: Under a future climate scenario (mid-range future scenario), the number of households in high-likelihood flood zones rises by about 50%: from ~50,000 today to ~78,000 by 2100. This 78,000 represents ~4% of total households in Ireland. Long-term mortgage exposure is significant: Between 6,450 and 36,700 mortgaged households (1.2% to 6.9% of all mortgaged households) are located in high-likelihood flood zones. Geographic concentration varies widely: Just five counties (Clare, Louth, Cork, Limerick and Dublin) account for 70% of the estimated total number of households exposed to high likelihood flooding.

Suggested Citation

  • Kilgarrif, Kilgarriff & Adhikari, Tamanna, 2026. "Household Exposure to Flooding," Central Bank Staff Insights 4/SI/26, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:stafin:4/si/26
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    File URL: https://www.centralbank.ie/publication/research-publications/staff-insights/household-exposure-to-flooding
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