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Measuring Economic Activity in Real Time during COVID-19

Author

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  • Conefrey, Thomas

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Walsh, Graeme

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic and the measures in place to control its spread have widely disrupted economic activity. This Economic Letter provides an update of the Central Bank’s Business Cycle Indicator (BCI). The BCI is a monthly summary indicator of overall economic conditions estimated from a larger dataset of high-frequency releases. At the peak of the containment measures in April, the BCI dropped to an unprecedented low. The decline in the indicator in April suggests that the initial economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was both sharper and deeper than the financial crisis of 2008/09. The latest preliminary estimate of the BCI for May 2020 points to some stabilisation in economic conditions, but the overall level of activity remains substantially below that observed prior to the COVID-19 outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Conefrey, Thomas & Walsh, Graeme, 2020. "Measuring Economic Activity in Real Time during COVID-19," Economic Letters 07/EL/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:07/el/20
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    File URL: https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/economic-letters/vol-2020-no-7-measuring-economic-activity-in-real-time-during-covd-19-(conefrey-and-walsh).pdf?sfvrsn=6
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